Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.806431 0.938271 1.084395 1.258303 1.459606 1.685267 1.957438
2025-02-02 0.624471 0.810202 1.038741 1.340378 1.727883 2.208915 2.851574
2025-02-09 0.513272 0.719435 0.992599 1.380468 1.916704 2.631771 3.658098
2025-02-16 0.432413 0.645587 0.945604 1.397722 2.061186 2.998763 4.424845
2025-02-23 0.368579 0.581263 0.896652 1.397059 2.170195 3.318796 5.155366
2025-03-02 0.316488 0.524283 0.847216 1.383801 2.251929 3.600578 5.855343
2025-03-09 0.277777 0.481327 0.811502 1.383721 2.349189 3.911254 6.630816
2025-03-16 0.237167 0.428628 0.751879 1.334581 2.356992 4.074994 7.180992
2025-03-23 0.226154 0.424791 0.772670 1.422733 2.604850 4.660958 8.508173
2025-03-30 0.197469 0.385009 0.725289 1.383634 2.622817 4.851049 9.160571
2025-04-06 0.172153 0.347813 0.677480 1.336756 2.619089 4.998941 9.748643
2025-04-13 0.151174 0.316006 0.635491 1.294926 2.618347 5.149530 10.354699
2025-04-20 0.139681 0.302046 0.627005 1.319141 2.752025 5.575616 11.556846
2025-04-27 0.135471 0.302663 0.647775 1.405390 3.021366 6.298332 13.440259
2025-05-04 0.127320 0.293653 0.647475 1.447404 3.203907 6.866413 15.072170
2025-05-11 0.117955 0.280598 0.636818 1.465482 3.337009 7.345966 16.571223
2025-05-18 0.108167 0.265157 0.618869 1.464787 3.428062 7.744677 17.937992
2025-05-25 0.098516 0.248672 0.596451 1.450896 3.487246 8.079476 19.199372
2025-06-01 0.090829 0.235858 0.580850 1.450812 3.577922 8.493612 20.688524
2025-06-08 0.080819 0.215861 0.545723 1.399326 3.540123 8.608832 21.488620
2025-06-15 0.079999 0.219280 0.567887 1.491685 3.863176 9.604313 24.517089
2025-06-22 0.072075 0.202918 0.538738 1.450722 3.848792 9.788662 25.570695
2025-06-29 0.064595 0.186706 0.507953 1.401606 3.807518 9.902047 26.458075